28 September 1956
Blanche and I heard Sylvia Porter at the Nat’l City Bank Finance Forum yesterday. Later, at Higbee’s Blanche bought some cinnamon wafers for Nancy. Nancy loves them, and Blanch says, “I’m getting very fond of that gal.”
Later at home, after supper, Kurt, Blanche, and I were talking stock forecasting. (She’s very proud of my charts – even though she really hasn’t had the time to understand my stock charts and is sure they are valuable). The thought of writing out my forecasts of the market from the charts and reading suddenly occurred to me as a means of having an accurate record of such forecasts in order for me to check back on them to determine ]my accuracy or inaccuracy of the forecast – thus determining whether my forecasts are good, bad, indifferent, improving, etc. – without leaving such forecasts to memory – which can cutely fool you later. So – here goes:
1st Forecast: Within the next 2 months or so, not later than the end of November, or at the latest early December, and even possibly before the election, or immediately afterward, the D/J average will hit new lows (below 468.81 D/J Average). Suez, Eisenhower, the election will influence & be the news – HOWEVER – the basic economy plays perhaps not an obvious but a real part of my prediction. Also, business conditions generally will reach depressed proportions mid-1957. The market, however, to my mind, will be discounting such depressed mid- 1957 business conditions within the next 2 (at most 3) months.
It will depend on the basic economy then as to the length of the drop in D/J averages; and it will depend on how long business, mid-1957, is depressed; how long after the next 2-3 month, it will take for a broader upswing in stocks. The D/J Stock drop should end between 430 to 450 with all probability between 430 and 440.
The would-be “she-lamb” of Wall Street has spoken from her kiddi-car.